Globally, President Trump dismissed Iran’s peace proposal response as unacceptable and warned of potential renewed military action, while locally, rising global uncertainty has complicated the inflation outlook and made the future policy path less certain.
Last week, geopolitical tensions surrounding the Iran conflict remained elevated after Tehran formally presented a 14-point, three-phase proposal for ending the war within 30 days. The plan included mutual non-aggression guarantees, the lifting of the US naval blockade, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while deferring substantive nuclear discussions. Overall, markets remain focused on developments in the Strait of Hormuz, oil price pass-through effects, and central bank communications amid a complex global backdrop of geopolitical risk and policy caution.
Last week, disputes over the Strait of Hormuz persisted, with little tangible progress toward resolution. As a result, oil prices climbed back above $100 per barrel. Locally, South Africa’s annual inflation rate edged up to 3.1% in March from 3% in February.
Globally, challenges to the ceasefire in the Middle East conflict signalled the potential for further escalation, while locally, the March CPI is due this week with risks to the upside following the effect of the surge in oil prices.
Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified following the collapse of US-Iran ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan. Washington attributed the breakdown to Iran’s unwillingness to commit to dismantling its nuclear weapons programme, while Tehran maintained that the US must first demonstrate trustworthiness. The development has already placed renewed upward pressure on global oil prices, with expectations of disruptions to crude supplies heading to China.
We talk to Humbulani Mochabi who reflects on her role at Prowess and how she supports the business…
Last week, Donald Trump issued a Strait of Hormuz ultimatum amid fragile ceasefire talks. Locally, President Cyril Ramaphosa reaffirmed South Africa’s position as a leading destination for foreign direct investment ahead of this week’s sixth South Africa Investment Conference (SAIC).
Globally, conflict in the Middle East marked further escalation, while locally, the SARB governor noted that risks to the inflation outlook are assessed to be to the upside.
In the second of his ‘Uncommon Thoughts’ series of articles on leadership, Prowess Board Chair and University of Pretoria Professor Sam Ndoga explores the importance of cultural alignment and value congruence in recruitment decisions, arguing that it is these attributes, far more than technical competence, that drives long-term success and sustainability.
Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate this week as the US issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating President Trump is prepared to “take whatever steps it takes” to achieve US objectives, including neutralising Iran’s air force and navy. Iran warned of retaliation targeting regional energy, desalination, and IT infrastructure. Markets responded with risk-off flows amid fears of a prolonged energy shock. Central banks globally held rates steady while highlighting upside inflation risks. Locally, February CPI surprised lower at 3.0% y/y, but the Iran conflict is set to trigger sharp fuel-price hikes and force the SARB into wait-and-see mode.
