Last week, the IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2025, while Global markets continued to navigate the US government shutdown. Locally, Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa unveiled the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025, aiming to transform the energy sector into an industrialisation and job creation driver.
International Market Developments
The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from its July update, while keeping the 2026 projection unchanged at 3.1%. It noted that the world economy is adapting to a landscape reshaped by recent policy measures, although some extreme tariff hikes have been eased through agreements. However, the IMF described the overall environment as volatile, warning that temporary factors supporting activity in the first half of 2025 are now fading. The IMF cautioned that risks to the global economy are skewed to the downside, including prolonged uncertainty, rising protectionism, labour supply shocks, fiscal vulnerabilities, potential financial market corrections, and the erosion of institutional strength.
Fed Chair Powell signalled a likely 25 bps rate cut this month amid weak hiring, noting rising employment risks and slowing payrolls, though growth holds. Philadelphia’s Paulson also backed further easing, saying she was open to two more cuts in 2025 and noting fading tariff inflation. Boston’s Collins and Waller support steady 25 bps cuts to bolster labour, noting tariff uncertainty and AI-focused investment. Miran warned that trade tensions raise growth risks, arguing for aggressive easing. Richmond’s Barkin sees a more stable long-term outlook despite dual mandate concerns.
Markets show resilience post the US-China trade flare-up that followed Trump’s 100% tariff plan on Chinese imports from 1 November, responding to China’s rare earth controls. Investors will be keeping an eye on Trump-Xi APEC summit talks.
Local Market Developments
Locally, it was a quiet date release week. The IMF sees SA GDP at 1.1% in 2025 (from 1.0%), 1.2% in 2026 (from 1.3%). Public debt is expected to hit 87% of GDP by 2030 (from 77%), strained by borrowing costs and slow growth. The IMF warned that global debt could top 100% of GDP by 2029, urging governance and growth reforms.
Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa unveiled the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025, involving R2.2tr (roughly 30% of GDP) to transform energy into an industrialisation and job creation driver with a cleaner mix where renewables and nuclear surpass coal. By 2030, allocations include 11,270 MW solar PV, 7,340 MW wind, 6,000 MW gas-to-power, and 5,200 MW new nuclear: with total new generation reaching 105,000 MW by 2039, targeting 3% GDP growth underpinned by security and affordability.