Last week, US inflation data suggested that inflation is a lot stickier than anticipated, reducing the likelihood of interest rates cuts in the near term. Fears of the tension between Israel and Iran escalating in the Middle East persist. Locally, CPI inflation for March eased following two months of up-swings, but upside risks to the inflation outlook remain…
Geopolitical risk headlines the week, as the conflict in the Middle East risks spreading into a regional war following Iran’s missile attack on Israel. Meanwhile, the IMF warned that global central banks should be wary of leaving interest rates high for too long given the impact on households…
Inflation data releases for the US and the Eurozone headline the week ahead amid concerns about the slower than expected pace of disinflation. Locally, inflation pressures are also on the rise as drought weather poses risk to the food inflation risk outlook and increased oil prices are likely to put pressure on fuel prices…
In an unsurprising move, last week’s MPC message from the SARB was that interest rates would remain higher for longer as inflation expectations remained elevated. This move was echoed internationally by the Fed as it again signalled to markets that it is in no hurry to cut rates…
Last week saw central bank decisions affecting the cost of borrowing for 6 of the 10 most traded currencies, highlighting divergence in the perception of inflation risk. This week our local Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets, with the expectation that the repo rate will remain unchanged as recent inflation prints have surprised to the upside…
Last week investors kept a close eye on US inflation numbers for clues on interest rate cuts. Locally, President Cyril Ramaphosa reappointed SARB Governor Kganyago for another five-year term & announced Mampho Modise as the new Deputy Governor…
Last week, FED Chair Jerome Powell proclaimed the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates, owing to inflation, leaving investors with ongoing uncertainty. Meanwhile, SA’s current account deficit widened by more than expected in the last quarter of 2023 as imports exceeded exports…
Last week, Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE) data that showed that growth moderated more than expected in January, with households still constrained by the pressures of high inflation and interest rates, while an announcement by Sasol that it will cut natural gas production in June 2026 raises risks to South Africa’s manufacturing sector…
“The Budget speech delivered by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana struck a fine balance between fiscal consolidation and addressing the needs of the most vulnerable members of our society. Whilst there is room for improvement, the budget has been well received by investors as bond markets have rallied in response. And although bullish for our currency, and the local fixed income markets, the budget comes at a cost for households and corporates who will be paying more tax over the next three years,”
Last week, US inflation numbers came in hotter than expected, sending bond markets into a sell-off as investors peeled back their expectations of Fed rate cuts. Locally, the focus this week will be on the 2024 budget speech, scheduled to be delivered by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana on Wednesday…
